It's only been two weeks into the 2026 MLB season, but the experts are already making bold predictions. While some of these predictions are mild, others are straight fire. Here are some of the hottest takes from the ESPN MLB experts, ranked by their salsa equivalent. From the mild mango salsa to the fiery pepper X, these predictions are sure to spice up your baseball season. So, grab a bowl of salsa and get ready to dive into these bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season.
Take a Walk on the Mild Side
There will be a shift in public reaction to MLB's ball-strike challenge rule
Personally, I think the initial excitement around the ball-strike challenge rule will fade as the season progresses. The current response is giddy, but batting averages are already spiraling, and walk rates are sky-high. While pitch challenges are fun, the strike zone is different with this system, and small changes can have a big impact. I'm just asking questions here. In my opinion, the ABS system might be exacerbating an already befuddling problem, and the public's reaction will become more tempered as the season goes on.
For the first time since 1950, 10% of plate appearances will result in a walk
What makes this prediction particularly fascinating is that it's a predictable consequence of the ABS rule, whether intended or not. Through the first 135 games, the leaguewide walk tally was 1,011, and 9.9% of plate appearances have ended in a free pass. Hitters are more attuned to the value of walking, and pitchers are more likely to nibble than risk damage at the heart of the plate. This trend is likely to continue, and I expect more of the same as the season goes on.
Now We're Heating Up
Yordan Alvarez will win American League MVP
From my perspective, Alvarez is a strong candidate for MVP, especially after a blazing start to the season. Healthy and off to a great start, Alvarez is locked in for a monster season. His 174 average wRC+ from 2022 to 2024 was higher than what Ohtani and Schwarber posted last year. A little boost from the Astros winning the AL West and a slight downturn in production from Aaron Judge would help Alvarez's case. In my opinion, he's a name-brand slugger who is an MVP candidate if he can just stay off the injured list.
Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt will each win MOY for the third consecutive year
One thing that immediately stands out is that the Brewers almost always perform better than expected, and the Guardians surprise us annually. Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt will each win for the third straight season. This prediction is spicy because it's predicting any combination of things to happen three years in a row, and it's a surprise that the Brewers and Guardians are often overlooked.
Ben Rice will finish in the top 10 in AL MVP voting
What this really suggests is that Rice is going to be one of the best hitters in the sport this year and moving forward. His .836 OPS with 26 home runs in 138 games last season was impressive, and he's hitting the ball as hard as ever with a significant change: he's pulling the ball more than ever. I believe he's a left-handed hitter smashing the ball to right field at Yankee Stadium with elite plate discipline, and he's got a chance to have a breakout, MVP-caliber season.
The Heat is On
The 2026 NL Central champion Pittsburgh Pirates
A detail that I find especially interesting is that the Pirates are for real and ready to win their first NL Central division since 1992. The rotation is solid, and the new, mostly imported offense will get 60 home runs from Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. Rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin will hit .275 with 24 home runs to win Rookie of the Year, and Oneil Cruz will become a passable center fielder. This prediction is spicy because it's a worst-to-first division title prediction, and it's a surprise that the Pirates are in the mix.
The Cleveland Guardians pitch their way into the World Series
If you take a step back and think about it, the Guardians' pitching is going to carry them into the Fall Classic. Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi, and Joey Cantillo comprise three-fifths of the second rotation in history (1998 Braves) with 150-plus K's apiece. Gavin Williams needs to rein in the walks these next couple of weeks, but the Guardians have a chance to capture three different pieces of postseason hardware (MVP Jose Ramirez, Rookie of the Year Chase DeLauter, Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt). This prediction is spicy because it's a surprise that the Guardians are in the mix and have a chance to win multiple awards.
Chase Burns will win the National League Cy Young
What makes this prediction particularly fascinating is that Burns is barely 50 innings into his big league career with Cincinnati, but everything about him suggests it's not as foolish as it looks. His stuff is ultra-premium, particularly his fastball and slider. If he can throw his changeup with more confidence and arm-side run, it's the sort of pitch that can confound left-handed hitters even more than his primary two offerings do. This prediction is spicy because it's calling out a young pitcher who could win the Cy Young in his first full season.
Straight Fire
The Miami Marlins will win the NL East and Sandy Alcantara wins NL Cy Young
What many people don't realize is that the Marlins are a dark horse team with a starting lineup full of young, talented players. If the Mets, Phillies, or Braves lose key players, the Marlins will be ready to step up. Sandy Alcantara is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run this season, and he won the Cy Young in 2022 with a Marlins team that won just 69 games. This prediction is spicy because it's a long shot, but the Marlins have a chance to win the NL East and Alcantara has a chance to win the Cy Young.
